www.fueloilnews.com | FUEL OIL NEWS | JUNE 2014 13
EIA N e w s
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Highlights
Release Date: May 6, 2014
• During the April-September summer
driving season this year, regular gasoline
retail prices are forecast to average $3.61/
gallon, 3 cents higher than last year and 4
cents higher than projected in last month's
STEO. The projected monthly national
average regular gasoline retail price falls
from $3.72/gal in May to $3.51/gal in
September. EIA expects regular gasoline
retail prices to average $3.48/gal in 2014
and $3.39/gal in 2015, compared with
$3.51/gal in 2013.
• Brent crude oil spot prices averaged
$108/barrel in April. This was the 10th con-
secutive month in which the average Brent
crude oil spot prices fell within a relatively
narrow range of $107/bbl to $112/bbl. New
pipeline capacity from the Midwest into
the Gulf Coast helped reduce inventories
at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub to
25 million barrels by the end of April, the
lowest level since October 2009. The dis-
count of WTI crude oil to Brent crude oil,
which averaged more than $13/bbl from
November through January, fell below $4/
bbl in early April. Total U.S. commercial
crude oil stocks at the end of April reached
a record high of nearly 400 million bar-
rels, which is expected to put downward
pressure on crude oil prices. EIA projects
Brent crude oil prices to average $106/bbl
in 2014 and $102/bbl in 2015 and the WTI
discount to Brent to average $10/bbl and
$11/bbl in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
• EIA estimates U.S. total crude oil pro-
duction averaged 8.3 million barrels/day
in April 2014, which would be the highest
monthly average production since March
1988. U.S. total crude oil production,
which averaged 7.4 million bbl/d in 2013,
is expected to increase to 8.5 million bbl/d
in 2014 and 9.2 million bbl/d in 2015.
• Natural gas working inventories on
April 25 totaled 0.98 trillion cubic feet, 0.79
Tcf (45%) below the level at the same time a
year ago and 0.98 Tcf (50%) below the pre-
vious five-year average (2009-13). Very cold
weather and low inventories contributed to
volatile Henry Hub natural gas spot prices
over the past few months, increasing from
$3.95 per million British thermal units on
January 10 to a high of $8.15/MMBtu on
February 10, before falling back to $4.61/
MMBtu on February 27, and then bounc-
ing back up to $7.98/MMBtu on March 4.
EIA expects that the Henry Hub natural gas
spot price, which averaged $3.73/MMBtu
in 2013, will average $4.74/MMBtu in 2014,
$0.30 higher than in last month's STEO,
and $4.33/MMBtu in 2015.
