Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/566735
40 // OWNER OPERATOR // SEPTEMBER 2015 TRUCKING KNOWLEDGE through the end of the year and beyond, with loadings up slightly in year-over-year comparisons. At once, Starks pointed to distressing signs for long-haul owner-operators in the spot market, where, despite rates controlled for fuel fairly close to levels relative to performance last year, market demand overall is measuring at "half of what it was in 2014." He cited the Truckstop.com Trans4Cast market demand index for that measure. "It speaks to the loosening of the capacity situation" as year-over-year growth in total truck loadings (particularly on the long- haul side, refl ected in the graph at right) has slowed considerably with sluggish industrial- economy and business-investment measures. Still, with consumer activity continuing to prop up the economy, Starks projected "better growth as we start into next year." Of those "super long-haul loadings," most refl ective of what's happening on the spot market, he said, "we're seeing a lot of weakness right now." If rates are fl at or even down a little, where's the capacity crunch / driver shortage so many talk about so often of late? According to analyst Noel Perry, such pressures have loosened this year to "normal" status in a recovery. Nonetheless, Perry sees future regulatory impact as potentially dramatic by 2017-'18, provided FMCSA is able to do what they say they're going to do, particularly relative to speed limiters and electronic logging devices. In 2017, when speed limiters and ELDs and other important changes hit the real world, the trucking industry "will have to hire a whole bunch of extra drivers. If the FMCSA continues with their agenda, the regulatory risks are real," he said. OO