www.fueloilnews.com | FUEL OIL NEWS | OCTOBER 2015 19
FUELS
l F O N
FUELS
gal. The latest STEO forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail
prices to average $2.38/gal in 2016.
"RBOB had some pretty good rallies this summer because
a really strong demand and if you top that off with a couple
of refinery outages, with refineries running nearly full-out
in some markets, you expected the market response," said
Milne. "Realistically gasoline demand is going to fall off, and
we'll see how resilient it will be for the rest of the year if con-
sumers decide to drive more."
Levine also supported that noting that gasoline demand
should start to taper off "but with these prices, my God. I
can't fill my car for more than $37. It's amazing," he said.
WEATHER
About the only significant factor that stands to impact heat-
ing fuels prices this winter is the weather. Last year EIA fore-
casted a milder winter, and it generally was going out of the
holiday season. Then the big freeze hit. This year, the weather
buzz is a familiar one. No, it's not polar vortex, but El Niño.
That would suggest a milder winter in the key heating mar-
kets… but maybe not.
As The Weather Channel Meteorologist Dr. Doug Gillham
noted in a September 14 forecast, milder weather is likely
true for the fall and early winter, but 2016 may go into spring
like the winter of 2015. He stated: Later in the season, espe-
cially during February, we expect several weeks of classic winter
weather over the eastern third of the country.
He went on to add: As we look at the winter as a whole
(December through February), we expect that the final numbers
will show below average temperatures across much of the South,
northward to the Mid-Atlantic States. In contrast, a rather mild
winter is expected from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern
Plains. Across the Great Lakes and Northeast, the mild start to
winter will be offset by the colder conclusion to winter and result
in temperatures that are close to normal.
The Farmers' Almanac has many faithful followers despite
it's less-technical underpinnings (though that has certainly
changed with the times). According to the Farmers' Almanac:
The winter of 2015–2016 is looking like a repeat of last winter,
at least in terms of temperatures with unseasonably cold condi-
tions over the Atlantic Seaboard, eastern portions of the Great
Lakes, and the lower peninsula of Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky,
most of the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley, as well as much
of the Gulf Coast.
New Englanders will once again experience a very frigid
(shivery) winter (Déjà vu).
