Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/603228
22 DECEMBER 2015 Good Fruit Grower www.goodfruit.com in your backyard," he said in speaking about Pacific Northwest growers. "American farmers have access to some of the lowest cost trans- portation systems in the world and are located in the most consuming country in the world. Growers on the West Coast have direct access to the Pacific Ocean and, by using the Panama Canal, have access to the Atlantic Ocean. "There's no spot on earth like the United States." Superpower Many of Zeihan's ideas come from spending more than a decade as an analyst for Stratfor, a geopolitical intelligence firm that provides forecasting to major corporations and organiza- tions. Three years ago, he launched Zeihan on Geopolitics, his own firm in Austin, Texas. His first book The Accidental Superpower was pub- lished last year, and his second book, Shale New World, is due soon. Accidental Superpower can be divided into forecasts touching three main areas: 1. Chaotic global markets: The global trade we've known for 70 years is coming to a close and every- one will have to find a new way to operate. 2. Baby boomer impact: The global demographic inversion of baby boomers retiring will impact other nations much more severely than the baby boomer retirement wave being felt in the United States. He noted that U.S. baby boomers entering retirement for the next decade will strain health care and Social Security, but such effects are paltry compared to other countries. Many countries have an aging society with very few young peo- ple in the 25-year-old range to support retirees. 3. Energy independence: The United States is now the world's largest exporter of refined oil. Moreover, the North America shale and oil boom will soon create an energy independent United States. This new energy development is great for U.S. consumers, especially those east of the Rocky Mountains, who will enjoy declining fuel and energy costs. But energy independence could mean less reason for the U.S. Navy to keep shipping lanes open for foreign oil. "That's a disaster for large tracts of the planet that depend on the United States to maintain freedom in the oceans and shipping." Key markets During Zeihan's keynote address, he will share his take on the challenges and opportunities of markets important to apples, pears, and cherries. Fortunately for the tree fruit industry, key export markets and the United States have growing numbers of the younger generation. Mexico, a key market for U.S. tree fruit, is one of the fastest growing markets besides the United States in terms of population in the world. Mexico and the United States are the top two on his list of tree fruit markets with opportunity. Southeast Asian countries, includ- ing Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, also are at the top of his opportunity list, and he sees strong growth potential for con- sumption of U.S. fruit. The rapid urbanization of Southeast Asian countries will impact their food output as land is converted to housing and rural populations move to cities. "The need for food in Southeast Asia is going to skyrocket." Taiwan, Korea, and Japan are "on the cusp" of showing positive or negative growth potential. They have some of the fastest aging societies in the world, and he's not sure that the United States will include them in what he calls America's "friends and family" circle and continue to maintain an ocean patrolling presence. India is a mix of opportunity and challenge for apples. India is not as dependent on trade as some other countries. It has been a growing market for Washington apples, and he forecasts slow and steady growth of apple sales in the future. For cherries, Turkey is the main foreign competitor, he noted. "Any country a thousand miles from Turkey will be a market for Northwest cherries," he said. He believes European countries are vanishing in terms of international trade. And China? "It will be a disaster, but the country will still need to import food to avoid complete breakdown, which will make it more open to imports." • COURTESY PETER ZEIHAN Large areas of arable land and navigable waterways give the United States advantages in the global growing market, says Peter Zeihan. • Increased costs • Drift issues • Breakdown & repairs • Creates dead zones • Time lost to mix & refi ll • Herbicide resistance • Turn weeds into green mulch • Improve moisture & nutrient uptake • Weed between trees, vines, sprinklers & trellising • Weed up to 40-acres a day • Effi cient front-mounted design allows weeding simultaneously with any rear operation Lower operating costs by $5,800 per 100 acres per year* www.wonderweeder.com 509 539-1725 *vs chemical weed control. STUDY BY MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY • Turn weeds into green mulch • Improve moisture & nutrient uptake • Weed between trees, vines, sprinklers & trellising • Weed up to 40-acres a day • Effi cient front-mounted design allows weeding simultaneously with any rear operation • Increased costs • Drift issues • Breakdown & repairs • Creates dead zones • Time lost to mix & refi ll • Herbicide resistance