The home heating oil industry has a long and proud history, and Fuel Oil News has been there supporting it since 1935. It is an industry that has faced many challenges during that time. In its 77th year, Fuel Oil News is doing more than just holding
Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/705645
14 AUGUST 2016 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www.fueloilnews.com up classes 1 and 2a (Class 2 is divided into 2a and 2b), and are not regulated by the proposed Phase 2 standards. These light-duty vehicles make up most of the vehicles on the road and accounted for 59% of 2015 transportation energy con- sumption in the United States. The Phase 2 standards affect classes 2b through 8, covering the medium- and heavy-duty vehicles that accounted for about 20% of U.S. transportation energy consumption in 2015. Heavy-duty pickups and vans, such as 3/4- and 1-ton pickup trucks used on construction sites, include class 2b and 3 vehicles with a GVWR between 8,501 and 14,000 pounds. They would be required to meet an annual 2.5% per year reduction in allowable emissions from model years 2021 to 2027. Vocational vehicles include a wide range of truck styles, such as delivery, refuse, utility, dump, and cement trucks, as well as school buses, ambulances, and tow trucks. This category includes class 2b through 8 vehicles with a GVWR of 8,501 pounds and above. A 16% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for diesel-powered vehicles would be required, with lower reductions in emissions for gasoline- powered vehicles and exceptions for certain vehicle types. Combination tractors—semi trucks that typically pull trailers—are class 7 and 8 vehicles with a GVWR of 26,001 pounds and above. They would be required to reduce CO2 emissions by up to 24% compared to the model year 2017 baseline. Trailers were not regulated in Phase 1, but they would need to improve aerodynamics and rolling resistance with different stringency depending on the type. By 2040 the average fuel economy of new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across all regulated classes would reach 10.6 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent, repre- senting a 33% improvement compared to the Reference case. Because vehicles can last for decades, the turnover of the vehicle fleet is relatively slow, although newer vehi- cles are often driven more intensively than older ones. Consequently, the average fuel economy of the entire fleet increases more gradually. In the Reference case, total fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy only increases slightly as vehicles manufactured under Phase 1 standards become fully adopted. Small changes in fuel economy measured in terms of miles per gallon at the lower end of the range can have out- sized effects. For instance, switching from an 8-mpg vehicle to a 10-mpg vehicle provides a fuel consumption savings of 0.025 gallons per mile of travel—the difference between 0.125 gallons used to travel a mile in the 8-mpg vehicle and 0.1 gallons used by the 10-mpg vehicle to travel the same distance. In contrast, starting with a 20-mpg vehicle, fuel economy must increase to 40 mpg to produce the same savings per mile—the difference between 0.05 gallons per mile used by the 20-mpg vehicle and 0.025 gallons per mile used by the 40-mpg vehicle. This illustrates how seemingly small changes in fuel economy for large trucks can save a significant amount of fuel. For medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, the amount of vehicle travel is not expected to change significantly compared with the Reference case, so changes in fuel economy tend to be directly reflected in fuel consumption. Unlike light-duty fuel economy standards, which mainly affect gasoline consumption, standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles will primarily affect diesel fuel consumption. As such, diesel consumption by medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in the Phase 2 Standards case is 18% lower (0.5 million boa/d) in 2040 compared to the Reference case. Gasoline and alternative fuel consump- tion is also reduced, but to a lesser extent, because fuels other than diesel account for only about 10% of consump- tion from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. l F O N NOTE: LNG is liquefied natural gas. CNG is compressed natural gas. Fuel consumption by medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in two cases, 2005-40 million barrels per day (oil equivalent) AEO2016 Reference case Phase 2 standards 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 history projections projections diesel gasoline CNG + LNG Diesel consumption by medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in two cases, 2005-40 million barrels per day (oil equivalent) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Reference Phase 2 standards history projections Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2016