STiR coffee and tea magazine

46 STiR coffee and tea / Issue 2, 2017 (April/May) By Kelly Stein South to Capricornio Repeated frosts curbed production in southern Brazil but are now less of a threat Starting from scratch along the Tropic of Capricorn where four well-defined seasons and cooler temperatures favor specialty coffee production cientific forecasts describe a dark future for coffee production. The world's coffee growing regions are getting hotter and drier, rains are less predictable. Cold snaps are sharper and droughts more severe, all of which is changing how producers, business executives, and traders define their strategy. Migrating to climate-friendly regions is an appealing solution. According to the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), average temperatures have increased almost two degrees Celsius in the last 49 years. The steady rise is affecting coffee production. Yields are lower, pests and diseases are more men- acing, and harvest totals are more difficult to predict leading to pricing volatility. Perhaps even more ominous for small and specialty growers is the fact that consis- tent coffee quality is more difficult to achieve. The severe ongoing drought in Espírito Santo, the main robusta producing region in Brazil, has caused a serious shortage, a crisis that drove prices higher than arabica in markets and had Brazil considering importing coffee to supply its value-added manu- facturing segment for the first time. The impact of temperature variations is nothing new, (see Arabica in 2050, STiR April 2016). Predictions are that demand will double while land suitable for growing arabica is reduced by half. The global robusta shortage is a example of how climate change is reshaping the market — robusta is the most climate tolerant coffee in the world. "Moving to higher elevations where it is cooler, can compensate for higher tem- peratures by two to three degrees," according to researchers Oriana Ovalle-Rivera and Peter Läderach at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Moving to more favorable growing regions exactly what some players are doing, even as they employ climate adaptation strategies at their existing properties. Once located, the challenge in climate-friendly regions is starting from scratch. The Tropic of Capricorn Globally coffee thrives in a band from roughly 20 degrees north of the equator to 20 degree south, a latitude known as the Tropic of Capricorn. Temperature increases make southern Brazil, once a powerhouse of production, coffee-friendly again S Varietals in the Capricorn coffee belt include Red Icatu, Uva (IAC 125), Acaiá, Ouro Verde, Topázio, Obatã, IAPAR, Mundo Novo, Red, and Yellow Bourbon

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