OI L OU T LO O K
A better heating season than the last
A variety of factors point to this heating season as being more profitable than the last – which is not hard to accomplish
BY K E I T H RE ID
A 16
S THE INDUSTRY RAMPS UP FOR THE 2012-2013 HEATING season, Fuel Oil News asked some experts in both fuel price analysis and the weather what our readers can
expect. The general consensus is that heating oil prices should remain fairly consistent overall, though, there are factors that could drive prices much higher or potentially much lower. The winter should almost certainly be better for fuel sales.
OIL PRICES Crude oil prices set the overwhelming basis for the price of
OCTOBER 2012 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www.fueloilnews.com
refined products. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall from recent highs over the rest of 2012, averaging $111 per barrel over the last 4 months of 2012 and $103 per barrel in 2013. Brian Milne, Telvent DTN's refined fuels editor predicts prices
generally inline with EIA's estimates though perhaps lower during the heating season. "We should pop over $100 maybe go up in the $110 (per bbl.) area during the fourth quarter if we start seeing a little better growth in the fourth quarter. What takes place in North Africa is going to be important, that geopolitical risk get-
