Aggregates Manager Digital Magazine
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/440030
11 AGGREGATES MANAGER January 2015 FORECAST 2014 5 million tons were the most likely to report excellent or very good business ratings, with 41.2 percent categorizing business conditions in that manner. They were followed by operators with production of more than 1 million but less than 3 million tons per year (41.1 percent); opera- tors of less than 500,000 tons per year (34.7 percent), operators of more than 500,000 to 1 million tons per year (33.4 percent), and operators of more than 3 million but less than 5 million tons per year (28.5 percent). In terms of 2014 production quantities, the number of operators reporting an increase in production (59.7 percent) was nearly two-to-one versus the percentage reporting a decrease in production (32.3 percent). Of those reporting an increase, the average increase was 17.6 percent higher production. Among those indicating a decrease, the average decrease was 27.1 percent. While the percentage of decrease is signifi- cantly higher than the percentage of increase, it's important to consider the actual number of operators re- porting in each category. Those most likely to report increased production include operators in the Northeast (78.9 percent), operators at opera- tions with production of more than 5 million tons per year (76.5 percent), and operators of crushed stone & sand and gravel (63.9 percent). Looking ahead When asked about anticipated busi- ness results for this year, operators continued to display optimism. Com- paring forecast projections from 2015 to 2014 results, 8.1 percent expect an excellent year (-0.8 percent), 33.9 percent expect a very good year (+7.3 percent), and 44.4 percent expect a good year (+4.1 percent). In terms of negative expectations, 12.1 percent expect a fair year (-8.1 percent), while 1.6 percent expect a poor year (-2.4 percent) in 2015. In terms of production quantities, nearly one in two (48.4 percent) expect production to increase this year, compared to 2014. Less than one in 20 (4.8 percent) anticipate producing less aggregate in 2015. Of those foreseeing an increase, the average increase is expected to be 15.2 percent. Among those indicating a decrease, the average decrease is 21.7 percent. Looking at the year ahead, opera- tors in the Northeast (47.4 percent) are the most likely to say they ex- pect excellent or very good business results. They are followed by their 2014 Production Volumes vs. 2013 Production Volumes 2014 Business Rating Trends 2015 Production Expectations vs. 2014 Results Source: Aggregates Manager Forecast Studies Source: Aggregates Manager 2014-2015 Forecast Study Average increase: 17.6% Average decrease: 27.1% Average increase: 15.2% Average decrease: 21.7% Decrease: 4.8 % Decreased: 8.1 % Excellent Very Good Good Fair Poor 2004 10.4% 32.4% 41.7% 11.6% 3.9% 2005 12.4% 29.7% 36.6% 17.4% 3.9% 2006 12.9% 32.2% 35.9% 15.1% 3.9% 2007 6.6% 18.6% 35.7% 28.5% 10.5% 2008 2.3% 9.8% 30.3% 35.8% 21.8% 2009 2.9% 7.2% 23.9% 38.8% 27.3% 2010 1.6% 11.2% 22.4% 38.4% 26.4% 2011 5.7% 13.2% 24.5% 34.9% 21.7% 2012 6.9% 10.9% 32.7% 37.6% 11.9% 2013 3.8% 21.9% 37.1% 30.5% 6.7% 2014 8.9% 26.6% 40.3% 20.2% 4.0% 2015 (forecast) 8.1% 33.9% 44.4% 12.1% 1.6% Producers ratings of business conditions in 2014 were among the best captured since 2006, with 35.5 percent describing the year as excellent or very good. Equally important, the percentage of producers reporting poor conditions was 4 percent, comparable to the percentages reported in 2004-2006. Looking forward, producers seem to be optimistic about 2015 business results as well, with 42 percent saying they expect either an excellent or very good year, and an additional 44.4 percent calling for a good year. Due to rounding, all numbers may not equal 100 percent of respondents. Increased: 59.7% Increase: 48.4% Stayed the same: 32.3% Stay the same: 46.8%