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2 4 V I N E YA R D & W I N E RY M A N A G E M E N T | J u l y - A u g 2 015 w w w. v w m m e d i a . c o m a reasonably informed consumer, someone who understands rea- sons for differences in pricing, as well as the origin of the grapes that make the wine. Japanese somme- liers and consumers are extremely engaged, and they appreciate North American wines for their inherent qualities and can distinguish them from Old World wines. EXPORTING ON THE U.S. HORIZON American wineries have been s o m e w h a t f o r t u n a t e i n r e c e n t years. As the decades have pro- gressed, domestic growth has largely spoon-fed U.S. producers all of the consumers they needed. That might not be true forever. As this survey has been con- ducted continuously for 15 years, Vinexpo and IWSR have had ample opportunities to compare their pro- jections to actual results. "Every year we verify the accuracy of the forecasts and the numbers," de Eizaguirre said. "Over 15 years, the margin of error has been minimal. It is quite exceptional in terms of accuracy." Our first topic of conversation was megatrends, specifically the decline of wine consumption in Europe and the rise of wine con- sumption in the U.S. and Asia. "On a global basis, there is a decrease in European consumption that's been going on for the last 20 years, and which has been quite constant," de Eizaguirre explained. "Europe is coming from a very large base; 60 or 70 years ago, countries like France or Spain were consuming almost 150 liters per capita, which has eventually been decreased over the years to an average of 45 liters per capita. Obviously, Europe has been slowing down. The growth is coming mainly from the U.S. and Asia, (and) within Asia, from China and also from Japan, which is nearly a traditional market now." I think by referring to Japan as a "traditional market," he meant one that buys wine based on mar- ket cachet, which, in turn, assumes PER CAPITA WINE CONSUMPTION BY VOLUME Still and sparkling wines in liters per capita (legal drinking age population) RANK COUNTRY 2014 2018 (PROJECTED) 1 ITALY 48.1 45.0 2 FRANCE 47.4 45.1 3 SWITZERLAND 44.7 42.8 4 PORTUGAL 42.6 41.3 5 AUSTRIA 41.1 41.2 6 GREECE 38.1 39.7 7 DENMARK 35.9 34.3 8 GERMANY 36.2 36.5 9 ARGENTINA 33.6 31.3 10 HUNGARY 30.9 31.0 Local Bank. Local Lenders. www.exchangebank.com 707.524.3000 Large or Small...to us you are just right! We have a wide variety of loan products available for a business your size Per capita wine consumption in the U.S. is still far behind that of the top 10 wine- drinking countries. (Source: IWSR/Vinexpo) MARKET WATCH TIM TEICHGRAEBER