Overdrive Magazine | Trucking Business News & Owner Operator Info
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/634029
February 2016 | Overdrive | 33 shortage numbers as being based on more than simply what employers say. ATA relies on "demographic driver data, population growth by age data, trac- tor counts and projected economic and industry growth information," as noted in its 2015 driver shortage analysis. FTR developed its methodology in the years following ATA's 2005 shortage report, says Jonathan Starks, chief operat- ing officer. It takes into account not only "demographic shifts and workforce pat- terns" but also estimates of effects from regulatory changes and business cycles. As for Capelli's point about the con- spicuous absence of rising wages as evi- dence in so many labor-shortage reports, ATA and FTR point to various econom- ic and trucking industry factors. Costello links the declines in inflation- adjusted income and pay numbers with the fall in per-truck miles caused by the Great Recession. "Our data, which includes all types of truckload freight … Respondents to polling con- ducted in December and Janu- ary expressed widely different views about a driver shortage. About half (44 percent) consid- er it real, while the other half (48 percent) view it as myth or primarily a function of other forces, not any real shortage of available workers. Responses to the poll at OverdriveOnline. com from readers follow. ROGER: If there was a shortage of drivers, freight wouldn't get hauled, and rates would be up. Don't know about the rest of you, but l'm not seeing it. M.J. ZURICH: The "shortage of qualified driv- ers" is largely a byproduct of deregulation. That saw the elimination of any meaning- ful carrier fitness standard. A total abandonment of that federal standard over the years has brought some seriously bad actors into the trucking business, resulting in, among other things, the decades-long wholesale drop in driver wages. Based on my own 44 years in trucking, I'll still say that if the drivers' wages and benefits packages are where they're supposed to be, the people needed for the OTR long-haul jobs will show up. Word-of-mouth about a wage/benefits package will travel faster (and is a way more effective recruiting and retention tool) than any slick ad campaign or trucking show kiosk will ever hope to be. ED: The problem is the fact that freight rates are in the crapper and that the new generation of drivers that go through these driving schools is not taught to drive, for the most part. A fellow I know just spent over $6,000 to go through a driving school. Of the 160 hours of the course, he was able to get less than six hours behind the wheel, and by the way, his driving instructor had completed the course less than one year prior. With all the regulations coming down the pike – be it FMCSA or EPA – there may likely be a real shortage soon, though. DENNIS BRAN- NON: We've seen a shift in interest from drivers leaving company employee roles to become owner-operators, but not a shortage. Shortage to me implies that there aren't enough drivers to meet demand. The 1099 [independent contractor] economy is gaining traction because millennials aren't interested in work- ing for the man. I believe that generation will create unconventional ways to meet demand and provide capacity. However, not in the traditional sense the ATA and big-box truckers want it done. Watch for spikes in leased equipment and increased urgency for automation. LEANN MCKEE: The big picture suggests that in the next five to 10 years, there will really be a shortage, as no one wants to get into this business. … With no incentive for new drivers (signing bonuses are meaningless in the long term, and irrelevant to owner-ops), there will indeed be a shortage. As I'm stuck in this, I hope that shortage truly hits soon, so rates go up! TIM: There probably is an excess of people that could be qualified to drive a commercial vehicle. The problem is that they all have real jobs. What's your view on the driver shortage? It's a myth 9% It might better be described as a 'pay shortage' 27% 48% 44% It's primarily a function of carriers' difficulties retaining the drivers they have 12% I don't know 2% Other 6% It's truly hard to fill open spots 9% Regulatory constraints put on trucking drive out those with experience 27% The younger generation is reluctant to work in long-distance trucking 8% READERS WEIGH IN