Overdrive Magazine | Trucking Business News & Owner Operator Info
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/634029
Voices channel 19 6 | Overdrive | February 2016 Visit Senior Editor Todd Dills' CHANNEL 19 BLOG at OverdriveOnline.com/channel19 Write him at tdills@randallreilly.com. Dennis Schaaf, among readers commenting on business prospects in this new year on Overdrive's Facebook page, reflected a trend toward a pessimistic outlook following a 2015 that for many didn't exactly live up to expectations as they stood this time last year. As 2015 rang in, almost four in 10 readers were expecting a better business year than 2014. But only three in 10 showed the same outlook for 2016. The decline in optimism marks a trend among owner-operators' views on the wider economy and their own business prospects within it now two years running. At the end of 2013, a solid majority of owner-operators (54 percent) were bullish on 2014. "2016 doesn't look to be any better than 2015," Schaaf wrote. "More rules and regulations" to contend with, plus "DOT blitzes finding imaginary infractions only to steal our money. Low freight rates and rough roads." Michael Hollingsworth abruptly concurred: "Stinks," he wrote about prospects for 2016. Other operators took the wait-and- see approach shared by a quarter of poll respondents. Neil Westerlund restated the brass tacks of many an owner-operator business. "I will do what I can to maximize my hauling and revenue," he wrote. "No cheap freight, and [more] loaded miles." A near equivalent share saw better prospects as saw conditions worsen- ing. Jeremy Lile planned on "running all the freight I can." With so many "crying about the e-logs" and more, Lile wrote, "I figure that there should be plenty of extra freight to haul." Rates will need to come up to make any extra freight worth it, noted frequent commenter Tom Puckett. "There's tons of freight out there, but most of it is cheap – the rates are in the toilet." Most recent reports have shown rates falling on average throughout the latter part of 2015 on the spot market. Contract linehaul rates in reefer and flatbed began to follow them in November, per DAT's Trend- lines reports, though contract van rates held more or less steady. Uncertainty remained fairly high, though income averages from ATBS' many leased-operator clients near yearend suggested even better income for them in 2015. By contrast, if sep- arate Overdrive polling is correct, only one in 10 owner-operators ultimately reported doing better in 2015. Find more income data in this month's cov- er story on page 28. Business outlook: Not too bright How owner-operators see business trending in 2016 OverdriveOnline.com poll Not sure 22.5% No 42% I expect it to be better than 2015 27.5% Worse than 2015 29% About the same 21% " Don't forget fuel is down, as surcharges also go down. Base rates haven't moved – it is the lower surcharge. I was getting almost 30 percent this time last year, now at about 15 percent. The brokers might be skimming more, if you use them, to make up their margins with the fuel drop. China is in financial troubled waters and dumping commodities on the world market to stay alive. … This year is also an elec- tion year – don't know why it matters, the world keeps turning, but it seems to hold business people captive. " — Joe Bielucki, via OverdriveOnline.com Worse than 2014 About the same Better Not sure just yet How you feel 2015 actually turned out OverdriveOnline.com poll 61% 18% 17% 4% Why was 2015 worse for so many people? Run through the Channel 19 year in review for insights on ELDs, hours, parking and much more via the Dec. 28, 29 and 31 posts to the blog.