Aggregates Manager Digital Magazine
Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/103664
2012 Business Rating Trends FORECAST 2012 2012 Business Rating Trends 100 2012 Production Volumes vs. 2011 Production Volumes 90 100 80 90 70 80 60 70 Poor 50 60 40 Fair 50 30 Good 40 20 30 10 20 0 Fair Poor Good Very Good Decreased: Increased: 25.7 % Excellent 33.7% Very Good Excellent Stayed the same: (forecast) 40.6% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10 0 Average increase: 14.3% Average decrease: 25.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (forecast) Source: Aggregates Manager Forecast Studies In terms of 2012 results and 2013 predictions, the biggest shift in responses is found in the number of operators reporting poor results. In fall of 2011, 21.7% expected a poor year, while only 11.9% actually reported such results. And, for the first time since 2006, fewer than 10% (just barely) of operators anticipate a poor year in 2013. While "poor" results have shrunk, reports of a "good" year experienced the most growth. 2013 Production Expectations vs. 2012 Results Results by category Decreased: Looking at forecast responses by a regional breakdown, the 16.8 % Decreased: Increased: Northeast region showed the most positive results, with % per25.7 14.3 Increased: 28.7% cent of respondents reporting excellent business ratings for 2012. 33.7% It was followed by the West (9.1 percent), the North Central (8.0 Decreased: percent) and the South (2.5 percent) reporting Stayed the % excellent business 16.8 same: Stayed the same: creased: In contrast, the South (15.0 percent) was the most likely Increased: ratings.Increased: 40.6% 54.5% 25.7 % report poor business ratings, followed by the West (13.6 per28.7% to 33.7% Average increase: 17.9% cent); the North Central (8.0 percent), and the Northeast (7.1 Average decrease: 11.9% percent). ayed the same:the Northeast region reported the most positive the same: Although Stayed 40.6% business ratings, with 57.1 percent describing the year as 54.5%producing less than 500,000 tons per year reported excellent busi2012 excellent, very good, or good, operators in the West were the ness results, while 9.5 percent of operators producing more than most likely to report increased production. In 2012, 59.1 percent 5 million tons per year said the same. These two groups were also of operators in that region said production tonnages increased, the most likely, however, to report poor results with 15.0 percent compared to 28.6 percent of operators in the Northeast reporting of the smallest size category and 14.3 percent of the largest cathigher annual production. A number of factors, including pricing, egory responding this way. competition for sales, and regulatory environment, could account for the disparity between production increases and overall business ratings. Looking ahead to next year, respondents anticipate similar results From a primary product perspective, producers of crushed to 2012. There are slight movements in some expectations, particstone, sand, and gravel fared the best in 2012. A total of 59 perularly with more operators calling for a good year (40.6 percent), cent of them reported excellent, very good, or good results, comthe most to weigh in with those expectations since 2004. The pared to 51.8 percent of crushed stone producers, 41.2 percent of most striking prediction is the amount of operators anticipating producers of other materials (including products such as recycled poor business results. For the first time since 2006's production materials, cement, lime, and industrial minerals), and 30.8 perpeak, fewer than 10 percent (9.9 percent) anticipate this year's cent of sand and gravel producers. Sand and gravel producers business conditions to fall into the bleakest category. reported the bleakest business ratings, with nearly 70 percent From a regional perspective, operators in the Northeast are (69.2) reporting either fair or poor results. most optimistic about 2013 business ratings. A combined 71.4 When looking at business results based on annual production, percent expect it to be an excellent, very good, or good year. They operators at both ends of the size spectrum experienced both are followed by the West (59.1 percent), South (52.5 percent), highs and lows during 2012. A total of 12.5 percent of operators and North Central (52 percent). Looking ahead AGGREGATES MANAGER January 2013 25