Aggregates Manager Digital Magazine
Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/103664
Rock Steady After five years of extremes, the aggregates market sees a slight shift toward the positive. by Therese Dunphy, Editor-in-Chief tdunphy@randallreilly.com O ne term comes to mind when reviewing the results of the 2012-13 Aggregates Manager Forecast Survey: directionally correct. Overall annual business ratings indicate substantive improvements over the prior year. For the first time since 2007, more than half (50.5 percent) of respondents described 2012 as excellent, very good, or good. That percentage is up from a nine-year low of 34 percent in 2009. Another bright spot is the percentage of operators reporting excellent business results — this number has increased for two years in a row. While these results were reported by a relatively small number of operators (6.9 percent), it's the largest percentage of respondents in the excellent category since 2006. At the other end of the spectrum, the biggest shift in responses can be found among operators reporting poor business results. The percentage of respondents reporting the most negative results dropped nearly 10 percent between 2011 and 2012 to 11.9 percent. Reports of improved business conditions are particularly heartening given the yearto-year accuracy of our operator responses. For example, 6.9 percent of operators said 2012 was excellent, compared to a forecast of 6.6 percent; 10.9 percent said it was very good, compared to a forecast of 12.3 percent; 32.7 percent said it was good, compared to a forecast of 26.4 percent; 37.6 percent said it was fair, compared to a forecast of 35.8 percent; and 11.9 percent said it was poor, compared to a forecast of 18.9 percent. Three of the five categories of actual results were within 2 percent of forecast, while the other two — good and poor expectations — indicate respondents to the 2011-12 Aggregates Manager Forecast Survey were overly pessimistic. 24 AGGREGATES MANAGER January 2013