Aggregates Manager Digital Magazine
Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/103664
FORECAST 2012 Regional Five-Year Results: Increased: 100 90 80 Regional Five-Year Results: Northeastern Region Regional Five-Year Results: Western Region 26.4% Western Region 70 Northeastern Region 60 100 50 90 40 80 30 70 20 60 10 50 0 40 30 20 100 90 80 70 60 50 2008 2009 Decreased 2010 2011 2012 40 2013* Stayed about the same 30 Increased 20 10 10 0 0 2008 2009 Decreased 2010 2011 2012 Stayed about the same 2013* North Central Region 100 Regional Five-Year Results: North Central Region 80 70 60 100 50 90 40 80 30 70 20 60 10 50 0 40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 30 20 Decreased Stayed about the same Regional Five-Year Results: Southern Region 10 Southern Region 2008 2009 2010 0 100 Increased Decreased 2011 2012 Stayed about the same 2013* Increased 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 Decreased 2010 2011 2012 Stayed about the same 2013* 2009 Decreased Increased Regional Five-Year Results: North Central Region 90 2008 *Forecast figures 2010 2011 2012 Stayed about the same 2013* Increased Source: Aggregates Manager Forecast Studies Looking at forecast results by primary business, producers in the other materials category are most likely to anticipate positive ratings, with 64.7 expecting an excellent, very good, or good year. They are followed by producers of crushed stone and sand and gravel (61.4 percent), crushed stone (48.1 percent), and sand and gravel (46.2 percent). By annual production volume, small producers (under 500,000 tons per year) are the most optimistic, with 62.5 percent predicting an excellent, very good, or good year. They are followed by producers in the 1,000,001- to 3-million-ton category (55.6 percent), more than 5 million ton category (52.5 percent), 500,001- to 1-million-ton category (50.1 percent), and 3,000,001- to 5-million-ton category (50 percent). Conclusions After five difficult years, the aggregate industry certainly isn't out of the woods. Some areas, such as the North Central region, are still more likely to expect decreased production (32.0 percent) than increased production (28.0 percent). Likewise, crushed stone producers continue to expect a challenge with more expecting a decrease (22.2 percent) than an increase (14.8 percent). By size, midsize producers are also more likely to expect a decrease than an increase. These trouble spots are forecast to continue to have challenges throughout 2013. In all other categories, however, operators say they are more likely to increase production than decrease it. More stone, sand, and gravel won't solve all of the issues facing the aggregate industry, but it's definitely moving in the right direction. AM Increased Methodology, Objectives, and Sources Northeastern Regional Five-Year Results: Western Region Western North Central Region Region Region 100 90 80 70 Southern Region The objective of the 2012-13 Aggregates Manager Forecast Survey was to determine business, production volume, spending, and workforce trends. In November 2012, Aggregates Manager e-mailed questionnaires to a random selection of readers in the crushed stone and sand and gravel, crushed stone-only, crushed gravel-only, and other materials production categories. A total of 101 useable surveys were completed, with 66 percent being completed by owners, presidents, officers, or other executives, and another 17 percent being completed by mine superintendents. 60 50 40 30 AGGREGATES MANAGER January 2013 27