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EIA outlook percent) more this winter with average prices that are about 8 percent higher and consumption that is 3 percent higher than last year. Natural Gas Under the baseline winter weather scenario, EIA expects end-of-October working gas inventories will total 3,830 billion cubic feet (Bcf) and end March 2014 at 1,890 Bcf. The projected 1,940 Bcf inventory drawdown during this winter is similar to the previous five- winters (October 2008 – March 2013) average of 1,940 Bcf. Because storage withdrawals are primarily used to meet winter heating demand, changes in weather can significantly alter winter drawdowns. This year's Winter Fuels Outlook projects a drawdown of 2,340 Bcf in the cold - winter scenario (heating degree days 10 percent higher than projected), and 1, 560 Bcf in the warm - winter scenario (10 percent fewer heating degree days). In the cold-winter scenario, storage inventories exit the heating season with a projected 1,450 Bcf at the end of March. However, this cold-winter scenario ending stock level is still higher than the average 1,271 Bcf end-of-winter stocks during the previous decade (2000 - 2009), reflecting increases in storage capacity as well as production over the last few years. About one-half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel. EIA expects households heating with natural gas to spend an average of $80 (13 percent) more this winter than last winter. The increase in natural gas expenditures represents a 14 percent increase in the average U.S. residential price from last winter, with consumption that is slightly lower than last winter nationally. The projected changes in residential natural gas prices this winter range from a 10 percent increase in the West to a 15 percent increase in the Northeast. Several factors contribute to this regional variation, including differences in weather patterns, regional changes in production and pipeline capacity, and differences in regulatory constraints in passing price changes through to customers. expects the U.S. residential electricity price to average 11.9 cents per kilowatt-hour, which is 2.3 percent higher than the winter of 2012-13. About 39 percent of all U.S. households rely on electricity as their primary heating source, ranging from 14 percent in the Northeast to 63 percent in the South. Wood The use of cord wood and wood pellets as the primary residential space heating fuel has increased by 39 percent since 2004, to about 2.5 million households in 2012. About 8 percent of households use wood as a secondary source of heat, making wood second only to electricity as a supplemental heating fuel. About 20 percent of New England homes (1.1 million) used wood for space heating, water heating, or cooking in 2009 (EIA, Residential Energy Consumption Survey, 2009), which is nearly twice the national rate. Almost half of all rural households in New England used wood compared with only 12 percent of the area's urban households that used the fuel. Gasoline The weekly U.S. average regular gasoline retail price fell by 18 cents per gallon during September, ending the month at $3.43 per gallon. EIA's forecast for the regular gasoline retail price averages $3.34 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2013. The annual average regular gasoline retail price, which was $3.63 per gallon in 2012, is expected to be $3.52 per gallon in 2013 and $3.40 per gallon in 2014. Crude Oil Brent crude oil spot prices fell from a recent peak of $117 per barrel in early September to $108 per barrel at the end of the month as some crude oil production restarted in Libya and concerns over the conflict in Syria moderated. EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to continue to weaken, averaging $107 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2013 and $102 per barrel in 2014. Projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $101 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2013 and $96 per barrel during 2014. l F O N Electricity The rising cost of generation fuels, particularly natural gas, contributes to a projected increase in the residential price of electricity. During the upcoming winter months, EIA www.fueloilnews.com | FUEL OIL NEWS | NOVEMBER 2013 23