Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/696144
WORLD FENCE NEWS • JULY 2016 • 17 THE HUMAN LINK by Jim Lucci Management Motivational Associates This month I have been asked to take a look back at the Crystal Ball forecast (midyear review) and see how we stand at the halfway point regard- ing my outlook, which is always found in the December issue of World Fence News. First, I will remind everyone that I stated that my last Crystal Ball col- umn was the most difficult journalis- tic assignment I have ever undertaken, since I first addressed that topic in No- vember of 1985. Looking ahead at 2016, we had no clarity for an awful lot of issues that we were faced with. We took a look ahead at some of the domestic issues we were facing going forward. Initially, we talked about the po- tential problems facing Speaker of the House John Boehner, who has since retired, and the difficulty that might happen as regards to the budget vote of December 11, 2015. Well, Paul Ryan came to the fore and became Speaker of the House and a government-funding compromise that he inherited seemingly is working for the time being. I pointed out at the time that the Republican Party was going through dysfunctionality and had created a vacuum of leadership in the party it- self – dysfunctionality that included tial consequences. I am not predicting a recession as such, but as of this writ- ing, big companies are starting layoffs once again in substantial numbers, and I believe it needs to be watched closely. I pointed out that ISIS is a major problem to the world and would con- tinue to escalate. I unfortunately have been proved right and I don't see it ending any time soon, until all of our allies make a serious commitment to unifying against ISIS with a workable global plan of attack. I pointed out that the scenarios in North Korea were a problem that needs addressing, and here again I believe I was right, i.e., the newest missile firing attempts this year which are clearly escalating in terms of dis- tance and strength. Although they have failed, you know they will per- sist in development and they need to be watched very closely. Taking a look back at some more domestic issues I mentioned, I said at the time that I thought GDP would be approximately 2.6-2.7%. As I mentioned earlier, I certain- ly would appear to have missed this completely. As I also said earlier, un- less something drastically changes, I will hold to a revised 2% GDP. the ultra-conservative wing of the Republican Party and the mainstream members on the other. I think this ob- servation was clearly right on, and, in fact, has manifested itself in this year's election campaign with Don- ald Trump and the rest of the cast and what some are calling a potential heated Republi- can convention, especially if the "Dump Trump" movement by Ted Cruz and John Kasich doesn't succeed. Stay tuned. I then went on to mention that I thought the raising of interest rates in December would not take place, but I was wrong. While it wasn't a big raise (25 basis points), I felt in view of the international scenarios that were oc- curring at the time a raise would be bad. Essentially, regardless of what I thought, we did that, and once again, are faced with that prospect again. We'll see. I also pointed out at the time that the strength of the U.S. dollar was creating problems for the economies of many coun- tries around the world (especially in the oil and en- ergy sectors) and challenging their abilities to turn their economies around. Not only was I right with that observation, but pres- ently and looking forward, at least near-term, it has gotten worse, and I am thinking that the U.S., with a re- cent growth rate of 1/2% and a po- tential growth rate of possibly 2% for 2016, is in the best shape among the global economies for the most part. We are still mired in an economic mini-recovery but with many poten- continued on next page We are still mired in an economic mini-recovery but with many potential consequences. I am not predicting a recession as such, but as of this writing, big companies are starting layoffs once again in substantial numbers, and I believe it needs to be watched closely. Reviewing my Crystal Ball forecast at mid-year