Overdrive Magazine | Trucking Business News & Owner Operator Info
Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/805422
PULSE April 2017 | Overdrive | 5 a week. It will break me, it'll kill me. And honestly, though I'm very anti-ELD, I guess I can deal with it with a little give-and-take – if they change the hours of service so we can deal with it. If I don't have to be stuck to a 14-hour clock, I can make it work." Wilson emerged feeling that Jordan at least better understood the issue. "I'm totally trying to work different angles than I had previously," Wilson said, noting his past attendance at meetings of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee. Opening up avenues of communication with Congress could be the key to any near-term change in ELDs or hours. Wilson and Reed both also hoped Jordan could serve as a messenger on truckers' concerns to the Trump administration and his FMCSA. Ac- cording to press reports a week after the meeting, the congressman and fellow Freedom Caucus members had lunch with Trump, no doubt dis- cussing the Obamacare alternative that caucus members opposed at that time. Trump invited them to go bowling the follow- ing week. Did the ELD mandate and hours of service come up during those meetings? If they did, you might well thank Reed and countless other owner-operators around the nation who've delivered similar messages. If you've been thinking about trading up but haven't taken a close look at the used truck market, you might want to carve out some time. Too many used trucks are gathering dust on dealer lots. Smart dealers are facing the hard truth that they need to sacrifice some of their expected profits to get fresh inventory and make room for trades that reflect current rates. The problem began in mid-2015, reports Overdrive's sister magazine Successful Dealer. Too many trucks bought right after the recession have entered the used market, says Chris Visser, senior analyst with J.D. Power Valuation Services. Many are aerodynamic fleet-spec'd models. The glut of trucks hit the auctions first, Visser says. "It took dealers six to eight months to realize the supply had changed," he says. "They lowered prices to compensate." By January 2017, retail prices for 3- to 5-year-old sleeper tractors averaged $65,910. That was $7,412 lower than the same group a year ago, and with 2.2 percent fewer miles. The used truck market could get more bloated before it levels out. Arrow Truck Sales President Steve Clough said in September he expects the number of trucks coming into the used market for the first time "will probably peak in 2019 or 2020." J.D. Power's NADA report agrees: "The potential returning supply of 3- to 5-year-old trucks is an unavoidable factor that will limit the magnitude of pricing improvements until at least 2019." On the other hand, positive economic de- velopments since the election could be moving things in the other direction. NADA forecasts that improving demand "should make 2017 a better year than 2016." An ACT Research report showed used Class 8 same-deal- er sales volumes starting 2017 on a high note, up considerably over a weak January 2016. Sales also rose from December, marking a second consecutive month-over-month increase. The decline in sales of new trucks in 2016 could indirectly help the used truck market, says Craig Kendall, president of the Used Truck Association. "My take is '17, barring something bad, the longer we go, the bet- ter the year will be for dealers," he says. It's hard to say if these are the early stirrings of a true turnaround in owner-operators' favor or just a distraction. Even if things are changing, it won't happen overnight. "There are some dealers that have frankly over-invested in trucks, and there is going to be some pain there," Kendall says. Their pain could be your gain. Buyers' market With 3- to 5-year-old sleepers continuing to flood the market, prices plunged during 2016. mheine@randallreilly.com By Max Heine Editorial director