Overdrive Magazine | Trucking Business News & Owner Operator Info
Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/856429
32 | Overdrive | August 2017 E very Wednesday, Diane McHaney downloads average- rate data from DAT Solutions. As an analyst for Barton Logistics, a brokerage based in Bandera, Texas, she identifies trends in spot and contract freight markets. Of particular interest is the mode — the most frequently occurring value in the data set. Also important is the stan- dard deviation of DAT's rolling 15- and 30-day spot market average-rate data. Both indicators help identify early signs of rate volatility. One year ago, this analysis led McHaney and Criss Wilson, Barton's vice president of operations, to predict that rates would begin to increase dra- matically by late 2016 as more carriers came into compliance with the elec- tronic logging device mandate. Pricing would be much higher, they surmised, as ELDs took capacity away from small fleets and owner-operators by squeezing their utilization. Their predictions, which have been echoed around the industry for years, have been wrong, and they well know it. One reason is that because the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association's court challenge of the mandate loomed large until June, when the challenge met its end, few owner- operators moved to adopt ELDs. The same can be said for the smallest of small fleets in Overdrive's audience. Among Overdrive readers who say they intend to continue trucking after the ELDs' capacity squeeze Max Heine Predictions vary widely, but there's reason to believe rates will rise enough to be a notable reward from an unwelcome imposition. BY TODD DILLS AND AARON HUFF THE SHIFT THE SHIFT RATES Owner-operators' view on the ELD mandate's potential effect on rates Source: OverdriveOnline.com May 2017 poll Rates will rise after the mandate 36% Rates will rise, but not for long 22% Rates will be unaffected 25% Rates will fall 8% Unsure 9% Small fleet owner Monte Wiederhold might be among the fifth of owners who see the potential for a brief rate bump. "Every time there's some sort of a major new regulation," he says, rate growth is predicted. "I'm one of those guys who says, 'I'll believe it when I see it' – and if I see it for a long-enough time and it's not just a little bump." With the rigor imposed by ELDs, detention becomes a more critical factor when it holds potential to add a sec- ond day to what used to be a one-day haul, throwing a new wrench into rate negotiations.