Better Roads Digital Magazine
Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/85902
By Primary Business 2012 Production Expectations vs. 2011 Results Decreased: 16.0% Increased: 26.4% Average increase: 14.9% the same: 57.5% Stayed Average decrease: 11.6% Source: Aggregates Manager 2012 Forecast Study year (+5 percent), 12.3 percent expect a very good year (+0.3 percent), and 26.4 percent expect a good year (+1.6 percent). In terms of negative expectations, 35.8 percent expect a fair year (-8.2 percent), while 18.9 percent expect a poor year (+1.3 per- cent) in 2012. By Annual Production By Primary Business 100 80 60 40 20 0 Crushed Stone & Sand & Gravel Sand and gravel producers are the most concerned looking forward. Nearly nine in 10 (88.9 percent) expect a fair or poor year in 2012. Those working in the Northeast and North Cen- tral regions are the most optimistic with 66.6 and 52.2 percent, respectively, calling for positive business results. In terms of size, small operators are the most hopeful, with 68.4 percent of those producing up to 500,000 tons per year and 53.3 percent of those producing 500,001 to 1 million tons per year calling for positive results. In terms of production quantities, sand and gravel producers are the most upbeat. Twice as many anticipate an increase in production compared to those who expect tonnage to decline. Consistency is key from a regional perspective. The majority of operators in all four regions expect production quantities to remain about the same. That said, operators in the North Cen- tral region were the most optimistic with 34.8 percent anticipat- ing an increase compared to 13.0 percent calling for a decrease. Producers in the South are still skittish on demand; they were the only region with more respondents anticipating a decline (20.9 percent) than an increase (16.3 percent). In 2011, employment levels were slightly more stable through- out much of the aggregate industry. Overall, 27.4 percent (9.6 percent fewer than in 2010) of respondents said the work force decreased throughout the year, while 20.8 percent said their work force grew. Personnel matters By Annual Production Crushed stone and sand & gravel operators were the most likely to report having a smaller work force (41.0 percent), while sand and gravel operators were most inclined to boost their numbers (33.3 percent). Crushed stone only operators had the most stable work force segment with 58.3 percent indicating the size of their work force was about the same as during the previ- ous year. From a regional perspective, the South's declining production levels were reflected in its staffing; 46.5 percent of operators there reported work force declines. The most growth was seen in the North Central region where 26.1 percent of respondents' operations grew their numbers. Capital Equipment Budget Expectations 19c January 2012 Better Roads By worker category, other hourly labor was the category to Crushed Stone Only Gravel Only Sand & Increased Stayed about the same By Region Decreased Other Looking toward 2012, the majority of operators — regardless of product category — expect production levels to remain the same, with two in three sand and gravel operators predicting stable production. After experiencing the largest negative impact in 2011, crushed stone operators offered the greatest variance in year-over-year expectations. The number expecting production to increase dropped from 25% last year to 16.7% this year while the number expecting production to decrease jumped from 6.4% last year to 29.2% this year. By Annual Production By Annual Production Capital Equipment Budget Expectations 100 80 60 40 20 0 Major problems Facing Aggregates Manage Increased By Primary Business 500,000 tons Under 500,001- 1 million tons 1,000,001 million-3 million tons 3,000,001 million-5 million tons More than 5 million tons In terms of size of operation, operators at both ends of the spectrum voiced generally posi- tive expectations for 2012. More than a third of the largest operations (more than 5 million tons per year) expect production to increase, while only one in 20 (5.3%) of the smallest producers (under 500,000 tons per year) expect production to decrease. Mid-size producers (3 to 5 million tons per year) were the least optimistic with one in two forecasting a decrease in production. Capital Equipment Budget Expectations By Region 100 80 60 40 20 0 Northeast North Central South West Major problems Facing Aggregates Managers Throughout the nation, most operators are calling for fairly stable production levels in 2012. The most optimistic areas are in the Northeast and North Central where one in three expects an increase in production capacity. The South is the only region where more operators anticipate a decrease than an increase. By Region Increased Stayed about the same Decreased M Stayed about the same Decreased