Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/91181
One question is difficult to answer: With thousands abducted, what has become of most of them if the count now is actually down in the few hundreds as the Ugandan government maintains? Is it possible, using GIS methods, to detect patterns in the attacks that can estimate the number of groups and the high-probability areas where the next attacks might occur? Understanding the Region Although this part of Africa is remote, it's not com- pletely unknown. The tri-border region between DRC, Sudan and CAR share one predominant ethnic identity and language: Azande. A shared culture and frequent intermarriage result in continuous cross-border move- ment throughout the region, so it's a perfect example of an "ungoverned space." The religion among the Azande is historically ani- mist blended with modern-day Christianity, but, on the whole, they are deeply superstitious—this factor plays into the psychological operations practiced by LRA. Subsistence agriculture remains the region's back- bone economic activity. The word Azande means "the people who possess much land" and refers to their history as conquer- ing warriors. Azande land is tropical rainforest that enjoys high annual rainfall, making it an area with high agricultural potential. The Azande are subsistence farmers and grow food crops such as maize, cassava, mangoes, etc., which helps make the area a target of convenience for LRA. Their tribal region extends throughout the tri-border area. They speak Zande (Pazande in their own tongue), an Adamawa-Ubangi derived language, and have been traditional, small-scale farmers and settled landown- ers, raising only chickens until the 1980s (since then adding goats and pigs). Their traditional beliefs in magic and witchcraft, known as "mangu," are strong. Several near-daily ritu- als exist that focus on protection from or canceling out the powers of witchcraft. Although NGOs frequent these areas, the location's remoteness, lack of security and LRA attacks make it difficult and dangerous to establish a presence for humanitarian aid or quick response from military forces. Finding LRA Data An NGO organization in Norway maintains the primary source of attack/event data used in the LRA pattern analysis. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED), maintained by the Center for Conflict Figure 3. An Initial Point plot analysis gave no indications of patterns, but provided a perspective of the area's vastness as well as the diversity of terrain and boundaries. Studies in Oslo, encodes location data of all reported conflicts in 50 countries in the developing world, and LRA is prominent among perpetrators of violence in attacks spanning more than 25 years. The data are derived from a variety of open sources and can be used in any GIS mapping program. In Figure 3, the results of a Kernel Density Estimate (KDE) are displayed, where two areas and two different contrasting patterns emerge. There seem to be two distinct clusters associated with two separate con- servation areas: the Garamba National Park located on the south Sudan/northeast DRC border, and one located contiguous to a second area that stretches along the northern DRC/southern CAR border. The presence of a road or trail may facilitate LRA movement, allowing for quick access to and egress from an event area. Although the roads aren't good enough to allow for quick response by Sudanese, CAR, DRC or Ugandan Peoples Defense Forces personnel and their associated heavy equipment, they're good enough to allow a small, mobile tactical force armed only with light weapons, like the LRA, freedom and ease of movement in and out of hiding areas inside OCTO B ER 2O12 / WWW . GEOPLA CE . COM 17