Overdrive Magazine | Trucking Business News & Owner Operator Info
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/818577
PULSE May 2017 | Overdrive | 5 When the big Delaware House service plaza on I-95 just over the Mary- land border closed for restoration years ago, the operator of a Petro (now a TA) in Elkton, Mary- land, "was looking at his sales numbers — they went up big time." While the operator figured "that manager of mine there is doing some- thing right," Mullings says, he eventually figured out that the competition from Delaware House had been removed temporar- ily. "You can probably guess what happened when it reopened." Hockaday contends that there's pretty hefty rhet- oric on both sides of the issue and that the parking shortage is nothing new. "What is new to our in- dustry is the introduction of ELDs (electronic log- ging devices), which will be required in December 2017, [creating] the need for more parking intermit- tently spaced along our routes." He urged NATSO to consider public and pri- vate parking as sort of a public utility. "Unfortu- nately, the truck stops are not capable to fully meet the need of the trucking industry's requirement for parking. The need to utilize the right of way in between truck stops could be a viable solu- tion to enhance the truck stops' ability to profitably operate … by providing off-site parking to their customers." Autonomous trucks are going to push truckers out of thousands of jobs! The electronic logging device mandate will create thousands of job openings! Does one dire warning compensate for the other? On the first claim, most trucking insid- ers' belief has been that change will be very incremental and relatively limited. That was the sense of a panel on autonomous trucking at the recent Truckload Carriers Association annual conference. The driver's role might well change, said panelist Mike Cammisa, an American Truck- ing Associations vice president. Nevertheless, "We still see drivers quite involved for the near future," he said. Outside the industry, expectations run ram- pant. Progress from Google, Tesla and others with self-driving cars, including the occasional mention of Class 8 trucks, fuels speculation that driverless big rigs are coming soon. Furthermore, broader concern about auto- mation has become an issue du jour. National Public Radio's recent series, "Robot-proof jobs," used a McKinsey Global Institute study that analyzed more than 800 jobs. It conclud- ed that heavy-duty truck driving jobs are 81 percent automatable. However, the series also notes that if the skilled parts of your job aren't automatable, your career has a future. With autonomous trucks, most trucking observers agree that out- side of limited applications (drayage, platoon- ing, etc.), drivers will be needed for many years to oversee duties that require experience and human judgment. As for the prediction that the ELD mandate will increase driver demand, it likely will. Some of those who've threatened to leave because of it will do so. Widespread ELD use will reduce productivity, requiring more drivers. These effects of the ELD transition will fade, but that isn't recruiters' only problem. The aging of the driver force, a longstand- ing trend, could be worsening. A report from HireRight found that among drivers leaving the industry in 2014, 22 percent were due to retirement. That rose to 33 percent in 2016. It's tougher than ever to replace retirees with younger drivers. HireRight found the average tenure for all drivers to be 4.6 years, but only two years for millennials. Also, the use of the new medical registry for getting medical cards is likely screening out more drivers than before. In an industry with 3 million driver jobs, those lost to auto- mation in the near future will hardly be noticed. The factors screening out drivers are stron- ger and more immediate. For the foreseeable future, driving should be a secure occupation. But, hey, if you want some real security and prefer to stay close to trucking, the McKinsey report has a category that's rat- ed only 7 percent automatable: "laborers and freight, stock and material movers, hand." That includes the professionals we call lumpers. Robots vs. ELDs mheine@randallreilly.com By Max Heine Editorial director How does the job threat posed by auton- omous trucks measure up to other forces increasing demand for drivers?