www.fueloilnews.com | FUEL OIL NEWS | FEBRUARY 2015 13
age for the entire United States. Colder weather typically
translates into increased consumption of heating fuels and
higher space heating expenditures. However, because the
National Weather Service still expects the balance of the
winter to be milder than last year, with temperatures rang-
ing from 11% to 16% warmer for the Northeast (PADDs
1A and 1B), Midwest, and South, total consumption is not
expected to be higher.
In EIA's October Winter Fuels Outlook, heating oil
consumption in the Northeast was expected to average
10% less than last year. In the
December STEO, Northeast heat-
ing oil consumption was revised
slightly higher, but will still aver-
age 8% lower than last winter.
The decline in expected expen-
ditures for heating oil between
EIA's October and December
STEOs is tied to lower crude oil
prices. Monthly average Brent
crude oil prices have declined
29% from their 2014 high of $112
per barrel in June to an average of $79/bbl in November.
EIA expects Brent prices to average $78/bbl in the fourth
quarter this year, compared to $109/bbl for the same time
last year. In the October STEO, Brent prices were expected
to average $98/bbl in fourth-quarter 2014. The $20/bbl
downward revision to crude oil prices causes lower prices
for petroleum products which are used as heating fuels,
mainly heating oil.
Total distillate inventories in the Northeast, although
well below the five-year average, are in line with inven-
