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Inside the Numbers Maybe not as important as you think By Avery Vise avise@randallreilly.com tions, and a constant refrain in comments for months has been how much we need change in Washington and, specifi cally, in the White House. So in the July edition of MarketPulse we asked specifi cally whether the outcome of the November elections would make a signifi cant diff erence in the health of their businesses. Given the strong comments, it was E ach month, Randall-Reilly Market Intelligence surveys senior trucking executives on current business condi- businesses in this country." Putting aside a detailed analysis of the claims about motives and eff ects, let's as- sume for purposes of argument that a sec- ond Obama administration would pursue a pro-labor and pro-environment agenda that is contrary to business interests in general and trucking interests in particular. If this is the case, the election's outcome probably still is not as critical as you might think. Here's why: Congressional gridlock is almost cer- tain on most issues. Until very recently, it Circumstances limit the consequences of the November election. hardly surprising that 85 percent said yes. While the survey did not specifi cally ask for their preference between President Obama and Mitt Romney, it was hardly necessary given the context. Th e common theme running through comments in the MarketPulse survey has been that the current regime has adopted an anti-business, pro-labor and pro- environment stance and that things will get only worse for business in the next four years if President Obama is re-elected. Here's just one comment that is fairly typical if perhaps a bit stronger than most: "If Obama gets four more years, the amount of regs that will be shoved down the throats of American business in order for him to achieve his dream of a union- ized America that runs on wind and solar power will be the death of many small appeared all but certain the Republicans would take the Senate, but they are an absolute lock to keep control of the House of Representatives. So if President Obama is re-elected, he still won't be able to get any signifi cant new legislation through Congress even if the Democrats manage to hold onto the Senate What if Mitt Romney is elected presi- dent and the Republicans take the Senate? Th e Republicans still have a good chance of winning the Senate, but they have virtu- ally no shot at a fi libuster-proof 60-seat majority. Without 60 votes, the Repub- licans couldn't enact much that is con- troversial. Th ey could use a tactic called budget reconciliation, which isn't subject to fi libuster, but this option would be available only on matters directly related to federal spending. isn't without checks and balances. If re- elected, President Obama would face some obstacles in implementing any kind of sweeping, groundbreaking regulations. For starters, many major regulations Regulatory change isn't easy and would require congressional authoriza- tion, and the Obama administration wouldn't get that. Sure, a president still has considerable regulatory and enforcement authority independent of Congress, but don't overestimate this power. Th e courts still can review execu- tive branch action, and they have shown little hesitance to strike down regulations that aren't justifi ed. Nor can a lame-duck president ignore the political impact of his actions on the next presidential campaign. Simply put, the kind of radical change many fear from regulation over the next four years simply isn't easy to accomplish. Nor could Mitt Romney, if elected president, wave a magic wand to push through a pro-business agenda and reverse Obama administration regulations. Except for rules issued right at the end of the previous administration, changing an existing regulation requires the same process as imposing one, and that means notice and comment, cost/benefi t analyses and the inevitable lawsuits when certain parties don't like the outcome. None of this is to suggest the election doesn't matter. But it probably doesn't matter as much as domestic and global business conditions that can't be controlled by politicians and bureaucrats. ■ Avery Vise is executive director, trucking research and analysis for Randall-Reilly Business Media and Information. 32 TRUCK PARTS & SERVICE | October 2012