Fleet Management News & Business Info | Commercial Carrier Journal
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/771645
TRANS4CAST T he combination of diminishing slack in tractor and trailer capacity and continued strength in U.S. consumer spending in the fourth quarter of 2016 contributed to a 6.2 percent anticipated growth rate in Truckstop.com's Market Demand Index (MDI) over third quarter levels. Available loads grew at an annualized clip of 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter, while available trucks contracted at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent over the same period. e growth in loads has been concentrated more in some types of equipment than others. Demand for flatbed equipment grew at the strongest pace in the fourth quarter of 2016, increasing at an annualized rate of 7.4 percent. Flatbed equipment was amongst the hardest hit over the past two years, as demand for this type of equipment is driven by industries like petroleum production and construction. Strength in residential construction has not been sufficient to offset declines in petroleum-related shipments. is has led to prolonged decreases in rates for flatbed loads. e recent resurgence in demand for flatbed trailers slowed the freefall in rates in the fourth quarter, but still resulted in rates that contracted at an annualized rate of 0.7 percent. It is important to note that this is an improvement from the 3 percent annualized rate of contraction in these rates in the previous quarter. We assume that the rates for flatbed trailers will improve through most of 2017, but will not reach 2014 levels again for the foreseeable future. e dry van and refrigerated trailer types were the bright spot in the fourth quarter, with MDI and rates both growing last quarter. Truckstop. com's Market Demand Index increased at a 6.5 percent clip for dry van equipment, and by 3.8 percent for refrigerated equipment. Rates for dry van loads grew by an annualized 1.8 percent last quarter, which was surpassed only by 1.7 percent annualized growth in the rates for refrigerated loads. is trend is forecast to extend through 2017, with the exception of a short seasonal pullback anticipated in the second quarter. Overall rates decreased at an annualized rate of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, which is an improvement over the 2.8 percent annualized rate decrease that occurred in the third quarter. Diesel fuel prices grew at a weekly rate of approximately 0.4 percent through the fourth quarter of 2016, or an annualized rate of 1.5 percent. is pace is anticipated to continue through much of 2017, with high-side risks that could occur if production restrictions are announced. ™ Powered by Truckstop.com & FTR Source: Truckstop.com Trans4Cast Market Demand Index (MDI) Source: Truckstop.com Trans4Cast Equipment Rates Truckstop.com Sees 6.2 Percent Anticipated Growth in MDI Trans4Cast is created through an alliance between Truckstop.com and FTR, combining Truckstop.com's rich data with FTR's deep analytical expertise to create a standard for North American Truck Market insight. Transportation Economist Noël Perry compiles the weekly report, which is essential for making critical business decisions. For more information on Trans4Cast, please contact Nate Clayville at NathanielC@truckstop.com. V o l . 1 1 , N o . 1 IT MAGA ZINE 5