Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/705606
2 2 V I N E YA R D & W I N E RY M A N A G E M E N T | J u l y - A u g 2 016 w w w. v w m m e d i a . c o m w w w. v w m m e d i a . c o m drink the same number of glasses? And how many ounces did you con- sume per drink? Nobody knows that," explains McMillan." Then all you have to do is multi- ply the wine drinking occasions by the amount consumed, and multiply that by the cohort population to get the total volume consumed, right? In theory, that's true. But if the information reported is a little off, the error is also multiplied again and again, and the final total consump- tion figure may be well off target. REVISED FINDINGS By the time the Wine Market Council made its annual presenta- tion in Yountville, Calif., six weeks later, it had begun to backtrack on the findings. The revised finding was: "Boomers and millennials today account for nearly the same amount of wine consumption, and millennials will soon account for decidedly more." And the articles kept coming. "Millennials Drink Nearly Half of All Wine in the U.S.," reported USA Today. But to McMil- lan, the new millennial consump- tion finding still made no sense, a n d t h e W i n e M a r k e t C o u n c i l offered no number that supported the changed conclusion. "It's still a problem. You have articles with those [WMC] numbers coming out today because it's hard to un-ring the digital bell, and with- out a WMC-issued press release explaining the mistake, there is confusion added to the narrative," says McMillan. "In January, WMC said millennials were dominant. In Yountville, it said, 'We made a mistake — they're about equal' but gave no numeric support for the revised findings. I asked them to retract the findings, correct the dig- ital record and give any kind of facts to support the new claim." He says he was told a press release was forthcoming. With nothing forth- coming and 10 days later on March SURVEY METHODS McMillan knew the numbers were off, and he told the Wine Mar- ket Council it was wrong. McMillan even had a pretty clear idea why. The Wine Market Council gets its data from consumer surveys that ask for estimates of an individual consumer's frequency and amount of wine consumed. McMillan says there's nothing wrong with the Wine Market Coun- cil's general research approach. "It surveys about 1,200 people, and that's statistically significant, if a lit- tle on the low side. The problem it runs into is with how it extrapolates the information. For example, it'll ask respondents how many glasses they consume per occasion, and then how many days they drink per week on average. Both ques- tions should have a large expected range of response errors. Can you remember how many glasses you had a week ago? Did you always Carlsen & Associates 707-431-2000 "After buying a complete Carlsen Crush Pad Package, we went from going home at 8:00 pm to going home at 3:00 in the afternoon with great results." Jacob Holman - Winemaker Les Bourgeos Vineyards Rocheport, MO 805.286.3710 TAPPLABEL.COM Now Printing in Paso. NOW SERVING THE CENTRAL COAST FROM THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL COAST NOW SERVING THE CENTRAL COAST FROM THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL COAST MARKET WATCH TIM TEICHGRAEBER