Beverage Dynamics is the largest national business magazine devoted exclusively to the needs of off-premise beverage alcohol retailers, from single liquor stores to big box chains, through coverage of the latest trends in wine, beer and spirits.
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/104187
EDITOR'S NOTE The Certainty of Uncertainty N o sooner was the ink dry on the tepid fiscal cliff-defying agreement crafted by a seemingly dysfunctional U.S. Congress then a hue-and-cry emerged from all forms of media - broadcast and cable TV, newspapers and magazines, and the internet in all its blogospheric incarnations: "There's even greater uncertainty to come! Watch out for the imminent debt ceiling fight, which could send the entire U.S. government into default! That could then send the U.S and world economy into a precipitous decline! Even more uncertainty on top of uncertainty!" The drumbeat for the past several years has been that employment and the economy are suffering because business leaders and managers are uncertain about the future (particularly taxes, healthcare costs, etc.), and as a result are hesitant to hire or invest in their businesses beyond immediate needs. As I've absorbed this chatter – you can't avoid it these days if you are a sentient human being – I've been wondering, "Isn't uncertainty an inherent part of the human condition?" It obviously is, though we try not to think about it too much. Why then, doesn't that same condition extend to a business environment? I've not been a small businessman, like many of you are, and I can imagine that it is comforting to be able to predict fixed costs; however, it seems that there are so many varying dynamics, constantly in flux, that make up the totality of a business that a level of uncertainty is more the norm than the exception. Indeed, it would seem that successful businesspeople are able to intuitively recognize the conditions that lead to "uncertainty" in its many forms, and then exploit those conditions to their advantage. Those who are prepared, who know how to tack into the wind, can still move forward; those who don't, fall behind. That's one point of a brilliant book, written a few years ago by Nassim Taleb, a writer/scholar/mathematician/financial manager, titled, "The Black Swan." To dramatically simplify his argument, he notes that there are completely unforeseen and unpredictable events that occur which have enormous impact on us, the overall culture and the economy. To recognize and understand that these apparently random events can and will exist is the first step to preparing for and dealing with them as best we can. Still, I remain certain about many things, and one of them is that our 2013 Retailer of the Year overcame any uncertainty he might have felt during the past few years, and made a tremendous investment in opening up a new wine and spirits superstore (Premier Wine and Spirits) in Amherst, NY. Burt Notarius and his sons Mark and Jon (who simultaneously opened up Premier Gourmet right next door) have been successfully operating three independently owned wine and spirits stores, but the latest move by Burt, who has been at the forefront of beverage alcohol retailing for decades, has to be his crowning achievement. We congratulate Burt, Mark and Jon Notarius on being named the Beverage Dynamics 2013 Retailer of the Year. Richard Brandes, Editor-in-Chief 6 • Beverage Dynamics • www.beveragedynamics.com • January/February 2013 Executive Vice President and Group Publisher Charles Forman Tel: 845-426-6072 Fax: 845-426-6423 email: cforman@m2media360.com Editor-in-Chief Richard Brandes Tel: 212-353-3832 Fax: 212-353-8214 email: rbrandes@m2media360.com Managing Editor Jeremy Nedelka Contributing Editors Dan Berger Harriet Lembeck F. Paul Pacult Robert Plotkin Michael Sherer Cheryl Ursin Vice President of Sales, Associate Publisher Anthony Bongiovanni tbongiovanni@m2media360.com Senior Regional Sales Manager Mark Marcon mmarcon@m2media360.com Senior Regional Sales Manager Debbie Rittenberg drittenberg@m2media360.com Art Director Adam Lane Senior Research Analyst Adam Rogers List Rental Manager Cheryl Naughton R E TA I L E R E D I T O R I A L A D V I S O R Y B O A R D Charles Bailes III ABC Fine Wine & Spirits, Orlando, FL Ralph Bondon David Breitstein Jim Shpall Hal Gershman Ron Junge Dan Manning Burt Notarius Charles Sonnenberg Berbiglia's, Kansas City, MO Duke of Bourbon, Canoga Park, CA Applejack Liquors, Wheat Ridge, CO Happy Harry's Bottle Shop, Grand Forks, ND Brown Derby Stores, Springfield, MO Haskell's, Minneapolis, MN Premier Liquors, Kemmore, NY Frugal MacDoogal's, Nashville, TN M2MEDIA360 President/CEO Marion Minor Vice President, Finance & Operations Gerald Winkel Senior Vice President, Audience Development Joanne Juda-Prainito Vice President, Operations and Human Resources Mary Jo Tomei Beverage Dynamics is published by The Beverage Information Group a division of M2MEDIA360 Editorial and executive offices at 17 High St., 2nd Fl., Norwalk, CT 06851 Telephone: (203) 855-8499 Fax: (203) 855-9446 E-mail: rbrandes@m2media360.com