Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/740514
Class 8 Feature G iven the high truck build rates in 2014 and 2015, the market for three- to five-year-old tractors is set to be flooded in the coming few years, a supply-side pressure that will con- nue to put downward pressure on used truck prices, said Arrow Truck Sales President Steve Clough. "Used truck supply goes a long way in determin- ing the environment" for pricing, Clough said. "The supply of used trucks has already been determined based on what was retailed three, four and five years ago. That's a wall of inventory that's coming." Clough spoke Thursday, Sept. 15, at the 2016 FTR Conference in Indianapolis, Ind. He said as of July, prices for five- year-old tractors (2011 model) were down about 15 percent year over year, four-year-old (2012) tractors were down 16 percent and three-year-old (2013) tractors were down 18 percent. Those numbers are in line with monthly NADA data published on Overdrive in recent months. "The amount of trucks I anticipate coming back as used trucks for the first time will continue to grow," he said. "It will probably peak in 2019 or 2020. Increasingly, supply will continue to put downward pressure on pricing." 26 November 2016 BestDriverJOBS www.bestdriverjobs.com by James Jaillet Clough showed these two slides in his presentation, pointing to the high used inventory in 2008 (bottom), driven by low demand before the onset of the Great Recession and high build rates in the years prior. The photo on top shows the same lot — nearly empty — in 2013. The 2013 used supply shortage was due to low build rates in 2009, 2010 and 2011, along with greater demand. Prices peaked in 2013, Clough said. Used truck prices poised to continue to fall until 2020, analyst says Used Truck Storage in 2013 Used Truck Storage in 2008