Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/213702
28 • DECEMBER 2013 • WORLD FENCE NEWS Once again, it's that time of year where we take a look into our not-socrystal ball and try to look ahead and see what kind of conditions we will have to negotiate on our journey into and through 2014. Well, for starters, we recently managed to briefly stave off default in the 11th hour deal that raised the debt ceiling to January 15, kicking the can down the road for some three months from the date of the deal (October 17). Most folks that I have talked with are pretty disgusted with Congress on both sides of the aisle and, quite THE HUMAN LINK by Jim Lucci, Management Motivational Associates Jim Lucci's Crystal Ball: "Kick the can down the road" problems continue; rocky road ahead frankly, in their heart of hearts would like to kick them all out of office and try it all over again with new bodies that hopefully will have our nation's ler Deck Sea ce And teed Fen Guaran Specifically formulated for ease-ofapplication, Standard Paints exterior Wood DefenderTM stains help protect and beautify wood structures. With one coat you are assured of uniform application with no runs, drips or back brushing. Mildew resistant, Wood Defender stains contain ultraviolet inhibitors to stabilize wood color and provide long lasting wood protection. Our products, techniques and equipment are proven by hundreds of successful applicators that we have trained. 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I am suggesting that the closure of the government for so many days probably has created a loss in the already-slowing GDP by a minimum of a half percent. GDP growth was originally predicted by many to be something in the order of 2-1/2-3% at best. Businesses aren't anxious to hire or make major moves with this same situation set to recur within 90 days. Earnings for the first quarter, as I see American Made – American Steel We Offer The Best Industrial And Commercial Chain Link On The Market! GBW or GAW You choose – Southwestern Wire makes it all! Be Sure To Visit Us At BOOTH NO. 927! 11, 9 and 6 Gauge • Class III, Class IV & 2 oz. • 15 Year Warranty 1-800-348-WIRE (9473) • Fax: 1-405-447-2830 www.southwesternwire.com MANUFACTURING LOCATIONS: Norman, Oklahoma • Sacramento, California • Warrior, Alabama MEMBER it, probably will be lower on balance and I see that revenue growth will also be lower for 2014, according to the crystal ball. Further, I am inclined to question the stability of the future. I believe that we are in need of a major plan that will close the gap between spending and revenue raising. We need to implement spending cuts, along with the closing of tax loop holes as well as some form of tax reform at least in that first quarter of 2014, if we are to ever stand a chance to avert bigger problems down the road. (Lots of luck with that, right?) Some pundits have begun to suggest that hyperinflation is a real possibility in 2014. By not coming up with meaningful short term and long term viable solutions, we run the risk of seeing the dollar weaken even further. The global community that includes our trading partners are aware of questions surrounding the U.S. and beginning to wonder what we are really doing about it? Which at the moment seems to be nothing. Moving on, let's take a look back on an overview basis at the last several years of the economy. The recession, to the best of my recollection, was declared over in 2009. Of course, as a nation, we are still recovering in many quarters of our society, and it appears to be an ongoing and never-ending process some several years later. We still have high unemployment and foreclosures (although for the moment not as many as in the past). Home sales and home prices, while showing improvement and predicted to be higher in 2014, are still struggling to come back to 2009 levels. Rising interest rates currently are putting a damper on re-fis and new home sales as I write this column, which may stall the housing industry recovery that we have seen in recent times. As we look into 2014, growth by any yardstick seems to me will be muted. There will be, in my judgment, about a 2-1/2% growth in GDP, which is not where it needs to be, but it is creeping forward. Additionally, there appears to be a rise in personal income to around a projected level of 3% for the coming year, which could be higher than inflation projections for the year as well. Most sources that I have looked at call for inflation to be around 2-1/2% for next year. Housing should pick up somewhat as well. Here again, most sources I have read seem to indicate that job growth should increase to about 195,000-205,000 per month, up from continued on page 30