Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/437570
SOLUTIONS 26 • December 29, 2014 • Powersports Business www.PowersportsBusiness.com On Sunday, Nov. 30, The New York Times declared, "retail sales from Thanksgiving through the weekend were estimated to have dropped 11 percent." The newspaper's source for this breaking news was a group called The National Retail Foundation, and the article went on to describe how Black Friday is losing steam, as shoppers no longer react to the frantic ads and hyped merchandise. Hmmm, I thought. Sounds bad. And I couldn't wait to get into the office and run my own numbers for our industry, as I have for the past four years. I was prepared for the worst. So you can imagine my surprise when on first pass I came up with a small decrease of less than 3 percent for V-twin dealers, and a substantial increase (18 percent) for the metric side. What the …? Back to The New York Times article. It still read the same, down 11 percent. But digging a little deeper, I came across an article written by Barry Ritholtz at Bloomberg View. He had seen the NYT article, found it echoed in The Wall Street Journal, and even repeated in his own Bloomberg News. Digging into the sources, here is what Mr. Ritholtz found: "How did we get these numbers, which almost by definition are wrong? It is a combi- nation of a retail trade group that cares little for accurate economic data, a terrible survey methodology and a naive and lazy news media, which seems to believe its role is to mindlessly repeat whatever nonsense is peddled by the aforementioned trade group. "The NRF forecasts have an abysmal track record. Every year, I exhort investors to ignore this data series. It has no correlation to actual retail sales, tells us nothing about retail profits and gives us no insight into the holiday season." You can Google: Ritholtz Black Friday to read more. OK, so I went back to my numbers for the same time period. Here they are: Black Friday parts sales show uneven results HAL ETHINGTON DOLLARS & SENSE See Ethington, Page 27 12% 38% 16% -11% 19% 20% 20% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% California Midwest Northeast South West Total U.S. Northwest METRIC DEALERS PARTS COUNTER SALES Black Friday 2013 v. Black Friday 2014 1,082 Dealers Surveyed — 655 Dealers Up, 427 Down CHART A METRIC DEALERS PARTS COUNTER SALES Black Friday Weekend (Thurs., Fri., Sat.) 2013 v. 2014 1,082 Dealers Surveyed — 662 Dealers Up, 420 Dealers Down CHART B V-TWIN DEALERS PARTS COUNTER SALES Black Friday Weekend (Thurs., Fri., Sat.) 2013 v. 2014 172 Dealers Surveyed — 88 Dealers Up, 84 Dealers Down CHART D V-TWIN DEALERS PARTS COUNTER SALES Black Friday 2013 v. Black Friday 2014 172 Dealers Surveyed — 100 Dealers Up, 72 Down CHART C 10% 34% 15% -10% 19% 16% 18% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% California Midwest Northeast Northwest South West Total U.S. 1.1% 2.9% -0.6% -5.8% 1.4% -4.5% -0.1% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% California Midwest South Total U.S. Northeast Northwest West -4.9% -1.7% -8.4% -7.0% 1.6% -5.6% -2.8% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% South Total U.S. West Northwest Northeast Midwest California Source: CDK Global Source: CDK Global Source: CDK Global Source: CDK Global