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54 • DECEMBER 2014 • WORLD FENCE NEWS THE HUMAN LINK by Jim Lucci Management Motivational Associates Well, here we are once again. It's time to stare into the Crystal Ball and see what next year might bring. I need to point out that this column is written well before the election results are in, so the effect of that vote could alter some of the thoughts presented here. Okay, here we go. Here are some of the negative factors affecting us now, such as ris- ing federal debt (at the time that this column is being written – $17 tril- lion dollars plus), an economy that is still well be- hind pre-recession growth rates, and the European and Asian markets limping along to the downside. Added to these factors, currently we have a geo-political situation that is very tenuous at best and current- ly very dangerous in many regions, such as the Middle East with ISIS, the Ukraine/Russian situation, the Hong Kong demonstrations, and the Iraq situation. Any one of these situations could ignite at any moment into global war- fare if we're not careful and that could alter a lot of the economic recovery. Currently, most of the pundits think our GDP will probably end up this year at somewhere between 2 to 2-1/2%, perhaps as high as 3% next year if all goes well. Before I move on I feel compelled to mention the Ebola situation, and who knows where that's going. While I wouldn't call 2014 a year that has demonstrated robust growth on balance, there are signs that the do- mestic situation is getting better. Now some positive factors: the labor market is showing signs of gain- ing some momentum (the creation of some two to two-and-a-half million jobs per year, although perhaps not the highest paying jobs, but there are some areas showing signs of higher payroll, for the most part, tech-relat- ed industries). The retail sales asso- ciation fi gures are estimating that the consumers' average holiday spending this year will be $804 per person. However, the discount stores and per- haps even online discount organiza- tions will get the lion's share of it. Consumer confi dence seems to be edging up, and eventually this should translate into some expanded spend- ing into those areas that have suffered from so-called pent up buying needs. One such industry that certainly has been brisk to this point is automo- bile sales. The industry has done very well to this point and shows signs of fi nishing pretty well this year. The economy has also benefi ted from less pressure from those issues that are "Washington" oriented, such as ran- cor over debt limit showdowns and spending cuts. Another posi- tive going forward has been the steady increase in U.S. crude oil produc- tion, as I believe that the U.S. is now producing more oil than it imports in many years. The U.S. has also boosted its pro- duction of natural gas in the past few years, and once again, I believe that I am correct in saying to this point that the U.S. is the number one natural gas producer in the world. This has benefi ted many energy intensive elements of the economy and allowed the petroleum, through tech- nology, to be converted into chemicals for use in plastics, dyes, and fertiliz- ers. Therefore, I have seen some esti- mates of over $100 billion to be spent on projects of various kinds relative to these industries in the next 10 years. This bodes well for the creation of jobs in their related industries. I should also mention that currently we are seeing falling energy prices, which benefi ts consumers and creates disposable income as well as energy reductions for our industry in general. How long it will last? Who knows. But for now let's enjoy it. Now for a word on housing. There can be no doubt that housing debt played a sizeable role in the credit bubble prior to the 2008-2009 fi nan- cial crisis and home prices have not yet returned to pre-crisis levels. Further, housing starts remain well below levels needed to meet long- term demand, according to data for U.S. housing demand. Pent up buying demand could lead to higher home prices (already felt in some markets) and this could eventually help support the construc- tion industry as well as assist those Lucci's Crystal Ball 2015 Overcast with partial clearing from time to time continued on page 56 While I wouldn't call 2014 a year that has demonstrated robust growth on balance, there are signs that the domestic situation is getting better. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Autodesk is a registered trademark of Autodesk Inc. and/or its affiliates in the USA or other countries. iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. 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